The Next President Has It Made

I don't want to diminish the global credit crisis that we are in. It will certainly take effort and patience to get everything back to where we can feel confident in our markets again.

With that said, as I think about what is going on, I keep coming back to one theme: The next President is going to look like a superhero.

The Fed, the Treasury, the IMF, and worldwide regulators have already taken signficant action to mitigate this crisis. Over the coming months, more than a trillion dollars will pour into our banking and financial systems, and that number is likely to grow. Bankers and lenders are beginning to adjust to a new (or returning to the old) reality of lending with a higher degree of scrutiny. Investors have adjusted to a 5-year low in the stock market, one that is hopefully exploring a bottom.

Additionally, the average bear market lasts about 16 months, and we are between 5 and 12 months into this one, depending on how you look at it. More importantly to the average American, the average recession lasts 11 months, and we will probably find that we entered one around October 1 when the official numbers come out. Because the stock market moves in advance of the economy, the market may very well recover before the recession officially ends.

The next President will be elected as we are ab0ut month into a recession and people are feeling bad about things. The market and regulatory forces have already been put in place to begin the process of pulling out of it, but we probably will not see the recession end until late 2009 or early 2010. That President, regardless of if it is McCain or Obama, will very likely enjoy a strengthening economy during the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of his term. When running for re-election in 2012, he will be able to say that he inherited a financial crisis, bear market, and recession, and that he heroically pulled the country out of it.

What initially looks like a difficult situation to inherit is actually a can't-lose scenario for a President Obama or a President McCain.

My Endorsement for President

After watching both party conventions during the past two weeks, I am optimistic that people are as engaged in the political process as they have been in recent history. Both candidates have compelling qualities to be admired by Americans.

John McCain is an American hero who has devoted his entire life to serving the country. After spending time in a POW camp, he could have easily drifted in to a quiet life and he still would have been considered a hero. Instead, he devoted the next 30 years of his life to public service in Washington DC. Regardless of what MSNBC wants you to think, McCain's lifelong record in DC is truly that of a maverick, and he has led some of the most critical reforms of our day.

Barack Obama is electric. He is a once-in-a-generation communicator who has the incredible ability to inspire people and provide a message of optimism. His gift of being able to engage people who had otherwise been apathetic toward the political process is extremely valuable. If a President needs charisma, he has it in droves. And regardless of what FoxNews wants you to think, Obama's experience in the Senate does count for something.

But my endorsement isn't for a specific candidate, but rather for an idea. I feel strongly that the President of the United States should be a true third branch of Government. The Executive Branch must be strong and able to rise above the partisan shouting match that permeates Washington. If it is simply an extension of the Congress or Senate, it isn't truly a third branch. It needs the ability to push forward an agenda that is that of the American people, not the GOP or Democratic leadership.

That is what I'll be watching these next eight weeks -- which ticket proves to me that it will be a true Executive Branch of Government, not just the leader of his party. You may arrive at a different conclusion than I do, but I'd encourage you to consider this as a primary criteria as well.