The Next President Has It Made

I don't want to diminish the global credit crisis that we are in. It will certainly take effort and patience to get everything back to where we can feel confident in our markets again.

With that said, as I think about what is going on, I keep coming back to one theme: The next President is going to look like a superhero.

The Fed, the Treasury, the IMF, and worldwide regulators have already taken signficant action to mitigate this crisis. Over the coming months, more than a trillion dollars will pour into our banking and financial systems, and that number is likely to grow. Bankers and lenders are beginning to adjust to a new (or returning to the old) reality of lending with a higher degree of scrutiny. Investors have adjusted to a 5-year low in the stock market, one that is hopefully exploring a bottom.

Additionally, the average bear market lasts about 16 months, and we are between 5 and 12 months into this one, depending on how you look at it. More importantly to the average American, the average recession lasts 11 months, and we will probably find that we entered one around October 1 when the official numbers come out. Because the stock market moves in advance of the economy, the market may very well recover before the recession officially ends.

The next President will be elected as we are ab0ut month into a recession and people are feeling bad about things. The market and regulatory forces have already been put in place to begin the process of pulling out of it, but we probably will not see the recession end until late 2009 or early 2010. That President, regardless of if it is McCain or Obama, will very likely enjoy a strengthening economy during the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th years of his term. When running for re-election in 2012, he will be able to say that he inherited a financial crisis, bear market, and recession, and that he heroically pulled the country out of it.

What initially looks like a difficult situation to inherit is actually a can't-lose scenario for a President Obama or a President McCain.

Filing Period Closes: City Council Ballots Emerge

The filing date for local city council races has passed, creating clarity and some surprises around what the upcoming Council ballots will look like.

Excelsior will, for the first time in recent memory, have an uncontested election for Mayor and the two Council seats. Nick Ruehl is the lone mayoral candidate. Greg Miller and Mary Jo Fulkerson are running for the two open Council seats. This is a major change from the past two (at least) elections, when multiple candidates ran in what ended up to be very close elections.

Paula Skrede is the lone candidate for Deephaven Mayor, while Keith Kask and John Wheaton are running for the two open Council seats.

Greenwood will have some contests in November. Deb Kind and Bob Quam are running for Mayor, and William Rose, Kelsey Page, and Lake Bechtell will vie for two 4-year Council terms. Tom Fletcher will run unopposed for the two year term.

In Shorewood, Dick Woodruff, Bob Edmundson, and Scott Zerby will run for the two open Council seats in the newly reformatted at-large system. Chris Lizee will be the lone Mayoral candidate.

William Labelle is the lone Mayoral candidate in Tonka Bay, while Gerry De La Vega and Anthony Marceau are running for the two open Council seats.

There you have it -- 18 people running for 15 open seats. A big departure from two years ago when, with the SLMPD funding issue looming, the seats were much more hotly contested.

My Endorsement for President

After watching both party conventions during the past two weeks, I am optimistic that people are as engaged in the political process as they have been in recent history. Both candidates have compelling qualities to be admired by Americans.

John McCain is an American hero who has devoted his entire life to serving the country. After spending time in a POW camp, he could have easily drifted in to a quiet life and he still would have been considered a hero. Instead, he devoted the next 30 years of his life to public service in Washington DC. Regardless of what MSNBC wants you to think, McCain's lifelong record in DC is truly that of a maverick, and he has led some of the most critical reforms of our day.

Barack Obama is electric. He is a once-in-a-generation communicator who has the incredible ability to inspire people and provide a message of optimism. His gift of being able to engage people who had otherwise been apathetic toward the political process is extremely valuable. If a President needs charisma, he has it in droves. And regardless of what FoxNews wants you to think, Obama's experience in the Senate does count for something.

But my endorsement isn't for a specific candidate, but rather for an idea. I feel strongly that the President of the United States should be a true third branch of Government. The Executive Branch must be strong and able to rise above the partisan shouting match that permeates Washington. If it is simply an extension of the Congress or Senate, it isn't truly a third branch. It needs the ability to push forward an agenda that is that of the American people, not the GOP or Democratic leadership.

That is what I'll be watching these next eight weeks -- which ticket proves to me that it will be a true Executive Branch of Government, not just the leader of his party. You may arrive at a different conclusion than I do, but I'd encourage you to consider this as a primary criteria as well.

Local Elections at a Glance: Greenwood

Greenwood's council seats are normally up for election every four years, and the mayoral seat is open for election every two years. This year, due to a vacancy, there is also a two-year Council seat available.

Open Seats: Four. Two councilmembers (two 4-year terms and one 2-year term for council) and the two 2-year term for Mayor.

Candidate Filing Deadline: Tuesday, Sept. 9, 5pm

More Info: Greewood City Offices, at phone number 952-474-6633.

Major Issues, incumbents announcing re-election plans, etc.: The massing ordinance (a.k.a. McMansion issue) is likely to be visible in 2009 even as the current council is putting new regulations in place.

Local Elections at a Glance: Deephaven

Deephaven's council seats are up for election every four years, but the mayoral seat is open for election every two years.

Open Seats: Three. Two councilmembers (two 4-year terms for council) and the two 2-year term for Mayor.

Candidate Filing Deadline: Tuesday, Sept. 9, 5pm More Info:
www.cityofdeephaven.org

Major Issues, incumbents announcing re-election plans, etc.: Tell us what you're hearing in the comments area!

Local Elections at a Glance: Tonka Bay

Tonka Bay's council seats are up for elections every four years, but the mayoral seat is open for election every two years.

Open Seats: Three. Two councilmembers (two 4-year terms for council) and the two 2-year term for Mayor.

Candidate Filing Deadline: Tuesday, Sept. 9, 5pm More Info: http://www.cityoftonkabay.net/

Major Issues, incumbents announcing re-election plans, etc.: Tonka Bay offers a link to see who has filed for the election. As of Aug 27, William Labelle had filed for Mayor, and Gerry De La Vega had filed for Council.
Tell us what you think the major Council issues will be for the 2008 - 2010 Council.

Local Elections at a Glance: Excelsior

Excelsior's council seats are up every four years, but the mayoral seat is open for re-election every two years.

Open Seats: Three. Two councilmembers (two 4-year terms for council)and the two 2-year term for Mayor.

Candidate Filing Deadline: Tuesday, Sept. 9, 5pm

More Info: 952-474-5233 - Excelsior City Offices.

Major Issues, incumbents announcing re-election plans, etc.: Nick Ruehl announced in the Sun Sailor his intent to run for a third Mayoral term. Among others, development of downtown (specifically, renewal of the Pizza Hut building) promise to be major issues.

Local Elections at a Glance: Shorewood

(This is the first in a series of pieces regarding the upcoming November 4 local elections. For each South Lake municipality, we will outline the open seats, candidate registration deadline, and any other relevant information).

After a brief, four-year "ward" system of City Council elections, Shorewood will return to an at-large approach where the entire city population can vote for any of the candidates regardless of precinct.

Open Seats: All. Four councilmembers (two 2-year terms and two 4-year terms) and the 2-year mayoral post.

Candidate Filing Deadline: Tuesday, Sept. 9, 5pm

More Info: Shorewood's election page

Major Issues, incumbents announcing re-election plans, etc.: You tell us! Post a comment and dialogue with your neighbors.

CD3 Congressional Election Preview: What Color is Our District?

This year promises to be one of the most exciting campaign seasons we have seen, and will probably have one of the highest voter turnouts in recent memory in the 3rd Congressional District. With contested Presidential, Senate, and Congressional seats, there is much reason to vote.

The 3rd has always been slightly Red. Several decades of representation in Washington have been served by moderate Republicans like Jim Ramstad and Bill Frenzel. While recent numbers show that the 3rd is still red, it is red by a sliver. Although the Democrats have fully controlled the House and the Senate since the last election cycle, bad economic news usually manifests in the Presidential vote. And then there is Iraq. The bottom line -- if ever a Democrat had a chance to pick up this seat, for the short or long term, it is this year.

How much vote is out there to swing? I'm no statistician, but I'll try to make a case. In 2006, a year when Republicans couldn't buy a vote and the world was Blue, Mark Kennedy pulled 41% of the 3rd CD vote. With the name recognition and flawless campaign Klobuchar had, I'd say that 41% was pretty close to the rock-bottom Republican base. That equated to 118,000 votes.

Likewise, Wendy Wilde and Deborah Watts each pulled 35% against Ramstad in 2006 and 2004. The 35% by Watts in 2004 was in a year that wasn't yet at the Democratic period of electoral domination, so I'm pegging that as the low end of what they can pull. That 35% equated to roughly 100,000 votes.

With that imperfect logic established, that means that this district leans Republican, but only by about 6%. And that also leaves a healthy 24% of voters up for grabs.

In 2000, a year that had contested Presidential and Senate elections in the district, just under 345,000 votes were cast in the 3rd. Since Obamamania and the intensity of local races may get more out to vote, I'm going to say there are 350,000 votes out to be had. That would equate to voter turnout of about 79%, which is very very good. If we (again imperfectly) apply our "base" ratios to this race, that means Paulsen would start with about 144,000 votes, and the Democratic nominee about 123,000. Of the remaining 83,000, the Democratic nominee would need to swing 63% of them to win; Paulsen would need to pull 38% to win.

There is no huge student population to get out to vote in the 3rd, but the Democratic nominee could swing some votes based on their characteristic. Terri Bonoff could appeal to the female voter, a sizeable block. Ashwin Madia could pull some of the Veteran and Immigrant vote.

The bottom line: This is still a red district, but only by a sliver. A very strong showing from a Democrat could make this seat Blue for the first time in generations.

Thank You to November Readers

Since the inception of this blog, no month has ever possessed the readership that November has. I won't divulge all of the numbers, but the day before the 11/5 School Board elections alone had more visitors than what I had hoped I'd get in a typical week ongoing.

Through a nifty little tool called Google Analytics, I can get a sense of what people are interested in reading about. One of the categories that is on the Google report is "Top Keywords". That is, which keywords were people searching for most often when Google or Yahoo routed them to your site.

In November, Virtually all of the top keywords had to do with the election. Things like "Minnetonka School Board", "Minnetonka Referendum", and individual candidates' names were all in the top 15 keyword searches. Additionally, 4 of the top 10 search terms had something to do with Bill Wenmark. While I wrote before the election that wasn't thrilled the election was becoming about one candidate's history rather than today's pressing issues, I admire that people of the area took it upon themselves to research the issue on their own, as is evidenced by the number of search hits on that topic.

Writing a blog like this can be a crapshoot. Staring at the monitor while writing a column, it reminds me of the line from Pink Floyd's Comfortably Numb that goes "Hello, is there anybody in there?" I'm glad to know that there is indeed someone in there, and that whoever they are care about local civic issues.

Minnetonka School District Election Results

All election results can be found here, based upon your zip code:
http://mpls.startribune.com/news/politics/elections/myvote/pf.php

In case you don't want to wait, the operating and technology levies passed by 65% and 64%, respectively. The four candidates elected to the school board were Lisa Wagner, Calvin Litsey, Paul Luehr, and Karen Walcowski.

Where to Vote on Tuesday, Nov 6

To find your voting location for Tuesday's School District polling, go to the Secretary of State's website and type in your zip code and street. Voting locations are based on where you live.

http://pollfinder.sos.state.mn.us/

This mailer from SD276 also summarizes where you should vote based upon your home location:

http://www.minnetonka.k12.mn.us/referendum/mailer/P08.pdf

Much Ado About Wenmark

A story that has gotten alot of press lately is that of School Board Candidate Bill Wenmark's educational history. The Lakeshore Weekly News, Sun Sailor, Chanhassen Villager, and now the Star Tribune have all reported that Wenmark didn't attend the US Naval Academy as a cadet, but instead served there during his military involvement. Statistics have also been provided regarding his attendance at meeting and workgroups which has been lower than his peers.

While the authors of this blog don't know Wenmark personally and have not endorsed any candidates, we find the fact that this has made the Star Tribune unfortunate. It reminds us of the shallow national politics aired on Fox News or MSNBC -- digging up an inconsistency in what someone said once, and then make that the entire story. While we have seven candidates campaigning on the issues for four school board seats, the main story a week before the election is about how one individual classified an experience that occured 35 years ago. Does this type of story really make the top people in our community want to run for office?

We also are curious if the same diligence was placed on validating claims from the other candidates, or if Wenmark was singled out.

The meeting attendance point, in our view, is more germane and something voters ought to be able to factor in to their consideration.

We aren't saying you should vote for Wenmark or should not. We're simply saying it is unfortunate that here, a week before an important local election, a personal story about one candidate has somehow become the news, just like seems to happen in national elections.

Refreshed District 276 School Board Candidate Websites

In the spirit of having all websites in one place, here is the latest on the candidate websites, in no particular order:

Paul Luehr: www.paulhuehr.org
Cal Litsey: www.calvinlitsey.com
Bill Wenmark: www.billwenmark.com
Karen Walcowski www.karen4tonka.com
Doug Anderson www.electdouganderson.com
Lisa Wagner www.electlisawagner.com
Alice Everett none found
Renee Schubbe not actively campaigning

Additional information on the candidates can be found at:

Candidate Forums (highly recommended) http://www.starrinkmedia.com/district276/

Lakeshore Weekly news: http://www.weeklynews.com/main.asp?SectionID=10&SubSectionID=10&ArticleID=3867

Tonka Focus candidate Q&A: http://www.tonkafocus.org/

Website for Bill Wenmark, SD 276 Incumbent

The website for Bill Wenmark is now up-and-running at www.billwenmark.com

By our research, that leaves Alice Everett as the only candidate without an active website, although she has been involved in all forums and is actively campaigning.

If anyone knows of a website for Everett that is eluding us, please let us know.

Refreshed School Board Candidate Websites

I thought I'd refresh the website info for the SD 276 Board candidates. My sources are Google and tips from readers. If I'm missing a website for either Wenmark or Everett, please let me know -- I don't intend to omit anyone.

Karen Walcowski: www.karen4tonka.com
Lisa Wagner: www.electlisawagner.com
Cal Litsey: www.calvinlitsey.com
Paul Luehr: www.paulluehr.org
Bill Wenmark: no website found
Alice Everett: no website found
Doug Anderson: www.electdouganderson.com

Also, the folks over at www.tonkafocus.org did a candidate Q&A, where all active candidates but one answered some questions of interest. Go to the website and click on "Candidate Q&A" on the left side.

SD 276 School Board Candidate Websites

Informational websites for four of the seven SD 276 Board candidates can be found on the links below. While there are officially eight candidates listed for the upcoming election, we're hearing that Renee Schubbe decided not to run but missed the deadline to remove her name from the ballot, and won't be campaigning.

Here are the other seven and links to their websites:

Karen Walcowski: www.karen4tonka.com
Lisa Wagner: www.electlisawagner.com
Cal Litsey: www.calvinlitsey.com
Paul Luehr: www.paulluehr.org
Bill Wenmark: no website found
Alice Everett: no website found
Doug Anderson: no website found

This blog will not endorse any candidates but will do its best to bring you election information as it draws nearer. If any readers know of other good sources of information on the Board candidates and issues, please send them to me and I'll gladly link to them.

School District 276 - IB Comment from Reader

In a posting from early August, I requested any opinions or observations about the International Baccalaureate program in the Minnetonka School District. A reader recently posted this which I wanted to highlight and not have it buried back in the comments:

The IB program is an incredible addition. The number of students who have entered into the program and are taking classes has expanded three-fold since introduced at the high school (our student is one of them). I believe the money spent is nominal and goes towards preparing teachers who wish to teach IB. I might add that this is an optional program for students – it would be very interesting to hear from IB students!

Thanks to this reader for posting this useful information and opinion. The IB program and other school issues will be big news very soon, as another school board election approaches. I've always been impressed how fluent on the school district issues our voters tend to be, and I'm sure there will be a thorough vetting process for this year's election.



I'd love to post some articles on topics of particular interest in the upcoming school board election, ones that would spur good discussion among readers. If you have ideas for the most relevant issues, please let me know what they are.

South Lake's Political Landscape: Are we Democrat, Republican, or in the Midst of a Change?

The 2008 election season is here, and it started about four months ago. Turn on a cable news channel any weeknight, and you are sure to see talking heads speculating if Barack Obama is "black enough" to be the Democratic candidate in 2008, or if Rudy Guliani can ever attract the Republican base with this moderate/liberal leanings on social issues.

Fortunately for us and our local public servants, the spotlight for regional races shouldn't begin shining until the summer of 2008. Heavy primary campaigning for the District 33b House seat didn't begin last year until the August timeframe, just a couple months after Barb Sykora announced her retirement. So we have a good year before we will see much action locally.

An interesting "offseason" activity (if you are a political buff) is to look at local election trends and try to understand any changing dynamics that exist. When looking at local election returns over the past 10 years, one thing jumps out: South Lake tends to not vote as Red as it used to.

As recently as eight years ago, the Republican State Senate candidate was winning with 73% of the vote, and the Republican House candidate was unopposed. In 2006, however, the Republican District 33 Senate candidate won with "just" 59%, and the Repub House candidate won with an uncomfortable 55% margin. Perhaps 2006 was an anomaly of a year, the lowest possible point for Republicans as they saw many seats turnover at the federal and state levels. Maybe the Democrats fielded exceptional candidates in the 2006 local races. Regardless, the area Republicans have to be asking themselves if the margins they saw in 2006 are as low as they can go, or if there are more moderate independents out there who could tip the scales to the other side given a "perfect storm".

The past three elections on the Senate side have seen Gen Olson win handily, but with decreasing margins. In 1998, 2002, and 2006, her respective margins were 73%, 65%, and 59%. Not a good trend for an office in which you would expect the election margins get more secure over time. On the District 33B house side, the recent history has seen Barb Sykora unopposed in 2000 and 2002, then win with 62% of the vote in 2004, and her successor John Berns win with 55% percent of the vote in 2006. What is interesting here isn't the smallish 55% share that Berns received in 2006 (after all, he was a relative unknown running in a wide-open race), but that the district went from being perennially uncontested to being within fathomable Democratic striking distance in such a short period of time.

One has to think that a strong Democratic candidate, coupled with another Republican bloodbath in 2008, could create some uncertainty for this and other seats that have been viewed as Republican safe seats for quite some time.

The next post later this week will focus on the micro trends: In which precincts is the political tide changing the most?