CD3 Congressional Election Preview: What Color is Our District?

This year promises to be one of the most exciting campaign seasons we have seen, and will probably have one of the highest voter turnouts in recent memory in the 3rd Congressional District. With contested Presidential, Senate, and Congressional seats, there is much reason to vote.

The 3rd has always been slightly Red. Several decades of representation in Washington have been served by moderate Republicans like Jim Ramstad and Bill Frenzel. While recent numbers show that the 3rd is still red, it is red by a sliver. Although the Democrats have fully controlled the House and the Senate since the last election cycle, bad economic news usually manifests in the Presidential vote. And then there is Iraq. The bottom line -- if ever a Democrat had a chance to pick up this seat, for the short or long term, it is this year.

How much vote is out there to swing? I'm no statistician, but I'll try to make a case. In 2006, a year when Republicans couldn't buy a vote and the world was Blue, Mark Kennedy pulled 41% of the 3rd CD vote. With the name recognition and flawless campaign Klobuchar had, I'd say that 41% was pretty close to the rock-bottom Republican base. That equated to 118,000 votes.

Likewise, Wendy Wilde and Deborah Watts each pulled 35% against Ramstad in 2006 and 2004. The 35% by Watts in 2004 was in a year that wasn't yet at the Democratic period of electoral domination, so I'm pegging that as the low end of what they can pull. That 35% equated to roughly 100,000 votes.

With that imperfect logic established, that means that this district leans Republican, but only by about 6%. And that also leaves a healthy 24% of voters up for grabs.

In 2000, a year that had contested Presidential and Senate elections in the district, just under 345,000 votes were cast in the 3rd. Since Obamamania and the intensity of local races may get more out to vote, I'm going to say there are 350,000 votes out to be had. That would equate to voter turnout of about 79%, which is very very good. If we (again imperfectly) apply our "base" ratios to this race, that means Paulsen would start with about 144,000 votes, and the Democratic nominee about 123,000. Of the remaining 83,000, the Democratic nominee would need to swing 63% of them to win; Paulsen would need to pull 38% to win.

There is no huge student population to get out to vote in the 3rd, but the Democratic nominee could swing some votes based on their characteristic. Terri Bonoff could appeal to the female voter, a sizeable block. Ashwin Madia could pull some of the Veteran and Immigrant vote.

The bottom line: This is still a red district, but only by a sliver. A very strong showing from a Democrat could make this seat Blue for the first time in generations.

3rd Congressional District Update

We are entering an interesting two weeks on the local Congressional District scene. Each of the next two weekends will have a host of local Senate District DFL caucus activity. In those caucuses, delegates are earned toward the endorsement. It is very conceivable that after the 16th, we'll have a good idea of who is running in the general election.



Here is our summary on the candidates:



Erik Paulsen (R) - Eden Prairie: Paulsen is the Republican candidate for the seat. He is a longtime State Representative and a former Ramstad staffer. His voting record indicates that he is further to the right than Ramstad, but his campaign messages have painted a more moderate picture. Paulsen is known to be a student of the issues, well-prepared, and more measured than passionate. He has a strong start to his fundraising effort.



Terri Bonoff (D) - Minnetonka: Bonoff is a two-term State Senator from Minnetonka. She took the seat in a special election, where she upset the Republican candidate in a mostly red district. Her reputation at the capitol is as a fighter for children and education. Bonoff secured many of the prominent DFL endorsements through her campaign, such as that of Walter Mondale. While some view her as the establishment candidate, it is important to note that until her 2005 legislative run she was a citizen activitist with no public office.



Ashwin Madia (D) - Brooklyn Center: Madia is an attorney in Minneapolis and new to the local political scene. He is a former Marine with Iraq experience. It is tough to find alot of information on him other than what his campaign is disseminating. He brings youth (he is 30) to the race and is a polished debater. He is also running an impressively organized campaign. The fact that he moved from Minneapolis to the 3rd CD only after Ramstad announced his retirement may raise questions with some.



Jim Hovland (D) - Edina: The Mayor of Edina was a Republican for many years, but officially switched parties at the time of his Congressional announcement. He is an law firm partner and visible in the Edina area serving on several commissions, including the one focusing on the 494 transportation corridor. The buzz is that he could have some momentum but his campaign has been a bit disorganized in the important delegate race.



We would like to see a Paulsen - Hovland race, as we think it would give the voters of the 3rd a contest most closely mirroring the district ideology. Hovland is relatively moderate, maybe to the left of Ramstad, while Paulsen is further right, closer to Bill Frenzel (Ramstad's predecesser). We will keep you posted on DFL developments as they occur.

Five Questions in the Race for Ramstad's Seat

The race for Jim Ramstad’s 3rd Congressional District House Seat should get more interesting in the next four to six weeks. As Minnesota wraps up its role in Super Tuesday (February 5), focus will shift from Presidential politics to local politics. For the first time in nearly 20 years, the 3rd District will have a wide-open race for voters to participate in. While the Democrats have gotten out of the blocks with three serious candidates, the Republicans have yet for anyone to officially enter the race, although it is said that Erik Paulsen, State Representative from Eden Prairie, is committed to the race and raising funds.

As this gets more interesting, here are my five questions as it pertains to this race. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Is Jim Ramstad Officially Out? He has announced his retirement and reiterated it at least once. However, more than one pundit watching the 3rd District just gets the feeling that he is not at peace with his decision. Call it collective intuition, but until he emphatically denies any interest in returning or endorses another candidate, there is going to be a buzz that he may not yet be out. Republican leadership in Washington would just as soon have a more conservative vote coming from the district, but if it is between a moderate Republican vote and a Democratic vote, they would jump at the chance of having Jim back.

When Will We See Activity on the Republican side? The answer to this may very well hinge on the answer to the first question. To-date, we know that Erik Paulsen is raising funds and working the Republican network for support. We also know that, while he hasn’t yet formally announced, Paulsen is scheduled to be on TPT’s Almanac in two weeks as a Republican candidate. While Paulsen has a history of effectively serving his Eden Prairie Constituents, he is hardly the only effective Republican public servant in the area and we would be surprised if there isn’t at least some behind-the-scenes activity from other potential candidates attempting to gauge if they could make a run.

If Paulsen Is The Only Republican Candidate, How Much Of a Money Advantage Does That Give Him? While the three Democrat candidates, Terri Bonoff, Ashwin Madia, and Jim Hovland split an estimated $400,000 of available funds in the most recent quarter (Hovland’s numbers aren’t yet in so we’re estimating), the rumor is that Paulsen collected that much himself. While you could argue that it is encouraging for Democrats to raise as much as Republicans in this historically right-leaning district, the spending side of the equation gives Paulsen a huge advantage if he has a non-competitive caucus and primary season. Campaign rules allow people to give once for the primary and once for the general, whether or not the candidate actually had to spend any money to get the nomination.

This Could Become a Blue Seat In 2008, But Could It Ever Be A “Safe” Blue Seat? There is no doubt that with the national anti-Bush sentiment, unhappiness with the Iraq situation, and strength of Democrat Presidential candidates giving the party a wave to ride, this could be a year that we see the 3rd District go Democrat. But could it ever be a “safe” seat for the Democrats like it has been for the Republicans? History would tell us that the 3rd likes a moderate Republican, but Ramstad didn’t lose much face in the district when his votes swayed to the left. Regardless of the temporary political environment, the 3rd likes a Congressperson who thinks for themself but is a “limited Government” person at heart. For that reason, this seat would be difficult for a Democrat to hold long-term unless he or she was extremely moderate, and we’re talking at least a 40 on the National Review’s 1-100 point scale (100 being the most conservative).

Does It Really Matter? As we’ve written before, there is a very good chance that Minnesota loses a congressional seat in 2010. That means that the new Congressperson would serve one term before potentially having to run against a popular incumbent from a neighboring district.